2011-12 Precon Championships: Make Your Predictions!
Welcome to the first prediction thread for the 2011-2012 Preconstructed Championships! As has become an Ertai’s Lament tradition, we’re running the Prediction League alongside the Championships to give you, the reader, a chance to flex your prognosticative muscles and see if you can call the matches. One the line is fame, glory, and- perhaps best of all- the chance to win fabulous prizes, ranging from Return to Ravnica Intro Packs, boosters, or a copy of Premium Deck Series: Graveborn!Â
One change we implemented last Spring season was to put the deck synopses for each round of matches in the prediction thread instead of the event coverage, to better to help the punters make informed calls in case they’re not familiar with all the decks. Otherwise, the competition is the same as in past series- one point for each correct call, match reports on the weekends and prediction threads during the week. We’ll accept predictions (in the form of replies to this post) up until the match report goes live- this week’s action appears this coming Sunday, 07 OCT!
As always, we begin with the Rosewater Conference, Nagle Division. Here are this week’s clashes:
Pick your winners!
Here’s the rundown of the Nagle Division contenders!
Ajani
Colours: White, Red, Green
Set: Duel Decks: Ajani vs Nicol Bolas
Rares: Ageless Entity, Ajani Vengeant, Firemane Angel, Loxodon Hierarch, Searing Meditation, Titanic Ultimatum
Detail: Although balanced against his nemesis Nicol Bolas, Ajani’s was the faster deck of the two. A three-colour deck, however, it lives and dies on the strength of its manabase. Packed with beaters and lifegain, if Ajani can have the mana fall his way he’ll be a force to be reckoned with. (Reviews: deck, play)
Carnival of Blood
Colours: Black, Red
Set: Innistrad
Rares: Curse of Stalked Prey, Falkenrath Marauders
Detail: A poor performer in our reviews, Carnival just made the cut to be included in a year that saw more than a few disappointing entries. Much of this was due to the toned-down removal environment. We can accept paying a little more for a little less if that’s what the environment dictates, but in a Black and Red deck you should expect to be able to snipe your opponent’s best threats on a relatively consistent basis. Instead, Carnival focused its energies in the red zone where, absent the ability to clear out roadblocks to get to your opponent, you had to hope for the best. Still, it’s more than capable of overwhelming starts! (Review: deck, play)
Devour for Power
Colours: Blue, Black, Green
Set: Commander
Rares: Avatar of Woe, Butcher of Malakir, Damia Sage of Stone, Dark Hatchling, Dreamborn Muse, Extractor Demon, Grave Pact, Lhurgoyf, Living Death, Memory Erosion, Minds Aglow, Mortivore, Oblivion Stone, Â Patron of the Nezumi, Riddlekeeper, Sewer Nemesis, Skullbriar the Walking Grave, Scythe Specter, Shared Trauma, Solemn Simulacrum, Szadek Lord of Secrets, The Mimeoplasm, Triskelavus, Troll Ascetic, Vorosh the Hunter, Vulturous Zombie, Wrexial the Risen Deep
Detail: If a deck could win simply on the power of its rares alone, Devour for Power would walk the competition. Unfortunately for it, there are a number of other factors in play, not least of which is speed and consistency. As a hundred-card singleton deck, the Commander releases were optimised for multiplayer play in their particular format, and are widely considered a bit of a longshot in a straight-on, head-to-head duel. The first of three Commander decks in the Nagle, this sacrifice/graveyard-themed deck has its work cut out for it! (Reviews: deck, play)
Entangling Webs
Colours: Red, Green
Set: Magic 2012
Rares: Arachnus Spinner, Garruk’s Horde
Detail: In stark contrast to its highly intricate Commander opponents, Entangling Webs embraces a very solid, classic strategy- pound in with Green beaters and back it up with Red burn. It has a superb Spider tribal subtheme- though is hindered a touch by a rather steep mana curve. (Review: deck, play)
Hold the Line
Colours: White
Set: Innistrad
Rares: Champion of the Parish, Elite Inquisitor, (2x) Honor of the Pure, (2x) Mirran Crusader, Nevermore
Detail: As a mono-coloured Event Deck, Hold the Line has to be an odds-on favourite for taking the Division. Add to that the fact that it’s one of the highest-rated decks we’ve reviewed, and you might just have an unstoppable juggernaut! Packed with a swarm of cheap, efficient creatures backed by a robust removal package and Equipment. (Review: deck, play)
Mirror Mastery
Colours: Blue, Red, Green
Set: Commander
Rares: Animar Soul of Elements, Avatar of Fury, Call the Skybreaker, Chain Reaction, Collective Voyage, Conundrum Sphinx, Disaster Radius, Edric Spymaster of Trest, Garruk Wildspeaker, Homeward Path, Hydra Omnivore, Intet the Dreamer, Magmatic Force, Magus of the Vineyard, Prophetic Bolt, Riku of Two Reflections, Ruination, Simic Sky Swallower, Trench Gorger
Detail: Mirror Mastery is heavily built around having Riku of Two Reflections as your Commander, letting you duplicate a horde of creatures with extra abilities. Outwith the Commander format it loses some of its potential, but it does remain one of the few decks with a Planeswalker you’re going to see. If it can weather early storms, incremental advantage can take the day! (Review: deck, play)
Political Puppets
Colours: White, Blue, Red
Set: Commander
Rares: Arbiter of Knollridge, Austere Command, Brion Stoutarm, Champion’s Helm, Chaos Warp, Chromeshell Crab, Crescendo of War, Dominus of Fealty, False Prophet, Flusterstorm, Howling Mine, Insurrection, Martyr’s Bond, Nin, the Pain Artist, Numot the Devastator, Oblation, Reins of Power, Ruhan of the Fomori, Trade Secrets, Wild Ricochet, Windborn Muse, Zedruu the Greathearted
Detail: Given the multiplayer format of Commander, interpersonal politicking plays a large role and Political Puppets plays this role to the hilt. This makes for great Commander, but in the Championship all politicking goes right out the window. Zedruu’s deck loves to give out freebies as an incentive to be left alone, but in a duel all those gifts do is make it quicker for your opponent to kill you. Can it pull off the upset against a Core Set deck? (Review: deck, play)
Repel the Dark
Colours: White, Green
Set: Innistrad
Rares: Elder of Laurels, Mentor of the Meek
Detail: The tribal Humans deck of Innistrad block, this deck is par for the course with a somewhat underwhelming removal suite but makes up for it with a fairly robust suite of cheap beaters and an arsenal of Equipment. Can the Elder of Laurels lead his people to glory? (Review: deck, play)
And that’s it! Best of luck to all entrants in this season’s Prediction League, and just leave your picks in the comments below. As before, those who leave some explanation as to why they made their choices may be quoted in the post-match wrap-up!
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Ertai's Lament 
Oooo, this will be fun:
1) Hold the Line – It’s a mono-color event deck built for tournament play versus a casual three color deck not built for tournament play. And Devour for power is slow.
2) Political Puppets – The commander decks are extremely slow, but I think time is on their side given the number of bombs some of them have. Entangling web looks like it gives those decks the needed time.
3) Carnival of Blood – Btw, how was carnival a poor performer if it swept its opponent in its own review?
4) Repeal the Darkness – Ajani decks has too much mana problems in too many games for my tastes.
ok here goes nothing…
1) Hold the line: seems to have the clear advantage in this match up… The deck is really strong and has great synergy in its build.
2) Gonna have to go with Political Puppets on this one. Yes, it is buit for a different format, but it’s speed is matched by EW’s and so is it’s removal suite. I think that in the end, Puppets is going to be able to become more of a threat and take the win.
3) This is probably the hardest matchup… Mirror mastery relies on its commanders a bit much. Carnival has some good speed and attack power, but it is lacking a removal suite. I have a feeling that the mirror deck will be able to hold out and take the win. It has good stall and removal, as well as a diversified mana base to help get the mana it needs to cast some of the higher cost creatures in the deck.
4) I really wanna say Ajani on this one. Even though the deck has mana problems, I think it is going to be a bit faster and will be able to topple Repel the Dark.
1] Hold the line.
2] Entangling Webs.
3] Mirror Mastery.
4] Ajani’s deck.
1) Hold the Line
2) Entangling Webs
3) Carnival of Blood
4) Repel the Dark
Hold the Line, Political Puppets, Mirror Mastery, Ajani.
I don’t even see how Devour for Power can even beat a Mirran Crusader. That’s just rough, man.
Hold the Line: This seems pretty like a forgone conclusion to me, the line is quick, its strong, and its got removal.
Political Puppets: There both slow, so I think I go with the deck that has good removel and better bombs.
Mirror Mastery: This seem like a really close game but I think MM is good enough to beat the vampires.
Ajani: I think that Ajani has the life gain to beat the humans in this case, but I could be wrong.
1) Hold the Line – The odds-on favorite of the division, against a slow Commander deck it shouldn’t disappoint.
2) Political Puppets – Between two slow decks, I go with the one that has the biggest haymakers. Although Puppets is hardly the strongest of the Commander decks, Core Set rares just don’t hold up.
3) Carnival of Blood – 20 life should be the death knell of Mastery here, as most of its best cards are expensive and Carnival can pour out the aggression.
4) Ajani’s Deck – Hard to call this one. Ajani’s Deck is stronger but Repel the Dark is more consistent. My vote goes to the deck with moar kittys.
1) Hold the line
2) Entangling Webs
3) Mirror Mastery
4) Ajani’s Deck
1) Hold the line
2) Political Puppets
3) Carnival of Blood
4) Ajani’s Deck
1/ Hold The Line : quick beaters against a rather slow deck should make it right
2/ Entangling Webs : 2 slow decks however the spiders packs bigger threats and the red burn as a bonus should help in getting rid of blockers.
3/ Mirror Mastery : despite being slower than its opponent, the Mirror deck is helped by the near non-existent removal pack from the vampires. It should help it a lot in getting enough time to drop its bombs.
4/ Ajani : as fast as Repel The Dark, but more brutal and with removal. The humans should prove tough opponents, but their lack of removal should prove their downfall in the end.
1) Hold the Line: hahaha.
2) Political Puppets: This one seems like the closest one to me, since Political Puppets CAN end up with things like turn 4 Ruhan or Wild Ricocheting the Fireball. But it can also spend its time durdling around until it dies.
3) Carnival of Blood: Mirror Mastery has a strangely high amount of early-game spells for a commander deck. But i’m betting on the flying of the vampire deck.
4) Ajani: Both decks have a bunch of lifegain, but Ajani has the removal.
I almost feel like I’m picking pokemon to battle =P. I CHOOSE YOU….
1 – Hold the Line
2 – Entangling Webs
3 – Carnival of Blood
4 – Repel the Dark
1. Hold the Line. Devour for Power has some awesome cards in it but it needs to be extremely lucky to get all the right cards against HtL. I don’t think it will, at least not 2 out of 3 times.
2. Entangling Webs. More of the above.
3. Carnival of Blood. I’m sorry, Commander decks. You’re very cool and all, but not mano-a-mano.
4. Repel the Dark. I don’t know why exactly, but something tells me that this white/green deck will prevail. Pumping your own or disabling your opponent’s create with one card, very versatile. Yes, I have good hopes 🙂
‘create’ should have been ‘creatures’ of course
Game 1: hold the line
Game 2: entangling webs
Game 3: mirror. Mastery
Game 4: ajani deck
That’s how I see it……!?
Game 1: Hold the line
Game 2: Entangling Webs
Game 3: Carnival of Blood
Game 4: Ajani’s Deck
hold the line
entangling web
carnival of blood
ajani
1. Hold the Line: I think this is closer than most people are considering, but HtL can get online faster and is more consistent.
2. Political Puppets: It got lucky in the sense that EW is the one deck in this division that I think all the Commander decks could beat, but it’ll be close. Arachnus Web is a clear problem as PP is overloaded with low power defenders and the Stingerflings will work well as there’s a heavy flying component, but my money’s on PP grinding it out.
3. Carnival of Blood: Also a hard match to call, since CoB seems so underwhelming and MM really needs a Commander to be good. I guess I’ll side with the hopes that consistency will beat sheer power.
4. Ajani’s Deck: I predict that Vengeant will show up in every match just to spite the comment that MM would be “the only deck with a Planeswalker you’re going to see”.
Good catch on that, what was in my mind and what came out were a bit different. I fixed it, and thanks!
Not sure how I should hedge my bets on these commander decks, but let’s see how it plays out
Game 1: hold the line
Game 2: political puppets
Game 3: mirror mastery
Game 4: repel the dark
Game 1: Hold the Line. Low curve, tremendous consistency, TWO Mirran Crusader, 8 pieces of removal…it’s simply too much for a Commander deck, loaded with bombs, but slow and unreliable.
Game 2: Political Puppets. Unless the Spider Gang comes up with a hand filled with ramp, the Puppets should have the time to stabilize their position and drop the bombs.
Game 3: Carnival of Blood. The hardest match to predict, I ended up with the vampires because I think that a strong start will devastate the Commander Deck. If the Curse or the Heir hit the field and are not answered, not even the lack of removal will save Riku.
Game 4: Ajani. Sort of a mirror match, but the amount of removal and overall greater quality of creatures put Ajani ahead.
1) Hold the line.
2) Repel the dark.
3) Carnival of Blood.
4) Ajani.
yep…. 🙂 i can see the future.
Aren’t “Repel the Dark” and “Ajani” against each other in the fourth match?
1) Hold the Line
2) Entangling Webs
3) Carnival of Blood
4) Ajani
Glad the championships are back. Now, if only I can remember to make my prediction post every week.
Hold the Line. Devour needs its commander more than PP I believe, so in this match up I think Hold the Line is just going to be too fast for Devour to chew up. Mono-white built for speed is going to be a challenge for any of the Commander decks to beat.
Political Puppets. I’m afraid the spiders will be stuck on the wall and unable to climb over them. The spiders will have a chance, but with each passing turn, the walls will get higher and harder to overcome.
Mirror Mastery. The blurb above about MM’s opponent mentions having hoping for the best. That won’t cut it even with MM not being able to use a commander. Plus, MM is the one Comm deck that has a planeswalker in it.
Ajani. Never poke zoo critters, especially if their cage is unlocked. We’ll just have to see if Ajani can get his manabase up, so the cages can be unlocked.
That’s what I think will go down, but anything can happen.
1) Hold the line
2) Entangling Webs
3) Mirror Mastery
4) Ajani’s Deck
1. Hold the line — mono colour agro vs devour doesnt seem fair
2. Entangling Webs- while pupets is certainly powerful i think it might be to swung towards multiplayer
3. Mirror Mastery- even without the commander (general) focused aspect of this deck mana fixing and removal are on its side still
4. Ajani’s Deck- while both decks are agro, life gain (especialy cards like helix) get ther nod
1 – Hold the Line – Just too efficient.
2 – Political Puppets – I’m wary of picking any of the Commander decks, but I think this one can last long enough vs. spiders to pull out a win.
3 – Carnival of Blood – I don’t have the same confidence in MM, so I’m going to go with Carnival.
4 – Ajani’s Deck – I think removal puts this one on top.
1) Hold the Line!
2) Entangling Webs
3) Mirror Mastery
4) Repel the Dark
I have few confidence in commander decks but I like Carnival of Blood even less!
1: Hold the Line
2: Political Puppets
3: Mirror Mastery
4: Ajani’s Deck
1. Hold the Line
2. Entangling Webs
3. Carnival of Blood
4. Ajani
1 Hold the line.
2. Entangling Webs
3. Repel the Dark
4. Ajani
1: Hold the Line
2: Entangling Webs
3: Carnival of Blood
4: Repel the Dark
1- Hold the Line
2- Entangling Webs
3- Carnival of Blood
4- Ajani’s
1 Hold the Line. Even though Devour for Power is my favourite commander deck Hold the Line will be just too fast for it.
2 Political Puppets. Entangling Webs is just too slow to take advantage of being against a commander deck and Political Puppets bombs should be able to win the game for it.
3 Mirror Mastery. If Mirror Mastery can manage to get into the late game it should win easily I just hope there is enough ramp to get it there.
4 Ajani. Ajani should be able to race Repel the Dark because the life gain will be able to let it focus more about attaking
1)Hold the Line
2)Political Puppets
3)Carnival of Blood
4)Ajani
1: Hold the Line
2: Entangling Webs
3: Carnival of Blood
4: Ajani
1. Hold the line
2. Entangling webs
3. Carnival of blood
4. Repel the dark
1. Hold the Line
2. Political Puppets
3. Carnival of Blood
4. Ajani
1. Devour for Power
2. Political Puppets
3. Mirror Mastery
4. Repel the Dark
1) Hold the Line
2) Entangling Webs
3) Carnival of Blood
4) Repel the Dark
1) Hold The Line
2) Entangling Webs
3.) Mirror Mastery
4) Ajani
Hold the Line It should have no problem beating a commander deck.
Entangling Webs- Agian I dono’t think any of the commander decks can hold up agiant the intro decks because of sheer card numbers and consistancy.
Carnival of Blood- Mirror Mastery is too passive.
Repel the Dark- Two color vs three color? I like Ajani’s deck but I don’t think it will fare well here.
Hold the line
Entangling web
Carnival of blood
Ajani
1. Devour for Power
2. Entangling Webs
3. Mirror Mastery
4. Ajani
Game #1 I meant Hold the Line not Devour for Power… whoops
1) The Line will Hold
2) The Webs will Entangle
3) The Carnival will be Bloody
4) Ajani… will kick some butt. (aww)
1) Hold the Line
2) Entangling Webs
3) Carnival of Blood
4) Ajani
Let the games begin!
Game 1: Hold the Line
Game 2: Political Puppets
Game 3: Mirror Mastery
Game 4: Ajani
1. Hold the Line
2. Entangling Webs
3. Mirror Mastery
4. Repel the Dark
1) Hold the line.
2) Political Puppets.
3) Carnival of Blood.
4) Ajani.
Game 1: Hold the Line
Game 2: Entangling Webs
Game 3: Carnival of Blood
Game 4: Ajani Vengeant
1) Hold the line
2)Political Puppets
3)Mirror mastery
4) Ajani
Pressing enter somehow made me submit the unfinshed comment instead of jumping a line.
I haven’t had a lot of time to test the decks by myself, so the predictions at almost ramdom.
Thanls for the good time I’m having with these championships.
I feel like I want to see Venser vs Graveborn, so bad. I think Venser could actually win.